The Carbon Clock Is Ticking: Look How Little Time Is Left by MCC

Geschreven op 16-9-2018 - Erik van Erne. Geplaatst in Klimaat

The MCC carbon clock demonstrates just how much carbon can be released into the atmosphere if global warming shall be limited to 1.5°C, or 2°C with high probability.

By selecting a choice of temperature targets and estimates, you can see how much time remains in each scenario.

Disclaimer: The numbers are based on the latest Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC. It is very likely that these numbers will be updated after the release of the IPCC’s Special Report on 1.5 Degrees. This will then be considered here accordingly.

In the Paris Agreement, all countries worldwide decided to limit global warming to well below 2°C (ideally as much as 1.5°C) compared to pre-industrial levels. This is extremely ambitious and essentially means that we are tightening our carbon budget. In concrete terms, it means that reaching the 2°C target with a medium probability would allow us to emit at maximum only about 720 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 between 2018 and 2100 into the atmosphere (stand 1.1.2018). However, at present the world is still emitting 40 Gt of carbon dioxide. This equals 1,268 metric tonnes per second.

The clock is ticking. The carbon clock of the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) shows just how little time is left for political decision-makers.

Visitors of the MCC website can set out to explore which policy objectives under which scientific assumptions would allow for how much time to implement effective action.

For example, on the top left of the clock you can select, for reaching the 2°C target, an optimistic upper estimate (about 900 Gt remain in the budget), a medium estimate (about 720 Gt remain), or a pessimistic lower scenario (about 350 Gt remain). The right of the screen shows the scenarios that would correspond to the 1.5°C target. The carbon budget that corresponds to your selection is then displayed, alongside the remaining time left.

The calculation is based on the assumption that annual emissions remain at the level of 2014; while between 2000 and 2010, an annual growth of greenhouse gas emissions of 2.2% has been observed.

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Anders Bekeken