Low Carbon Economy Index 2015 by PwC: Consious Uncoupling?
Geschreven op 20-10-2015 - Erik van Erne. Geplaatst in Klimaat
Het gemiddelde bruto nationaal product (BNP) is in 2014 wereldwijd met 3,2 procent gestegen. De CO2-uitstoot steeg in hetzelfde jaar met ‘slechts’ 0,5 procent.
Daarmee is de CO2-intensiteit van de wereldeconomie met 2,7 procent gedaald, de grootste afname in de zeven jaar dat adviesbureau PwC de meting uitvoert.
De cijfers van 2014 geven de suggestie dat de wereld een omslagpunt heeft bereikt, zegt PwC. Toch gaat het nog niet snel genoeg. Om onder 2 graden Celsius opwarming te blijven moet de CO2-intensiteit met minstens 6,3 procent per jaar afnemen.
Van de twintig grootste economieën (de G20) was Groot-Brittannië, net als het voorgaande jaar, koploper. Groot-Brittannië weet daarmee de economische groei het best te ontkoppelen van de toename van CO2-uitstoot. De broeikasintensiteit van de Britse economie daalde in een jaar tijd met 10,9 procent, meer dan dubbel zoveel als in 2013. Ook Duitsland, Italië en Frankrijk lieten een bovengemiddeld hoge daling zien.
In the 7th year of the Low Carbon Economy Index, it looks like the uncoupling of growth and emissions. And this is widely recognised as essential to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. However, there is still a big gap between current progress and what’s needed to meet the 2°C carbon budget.
Governments are meeting in Paris in December to agree a deal to limit warming to two degrees. It could be a historic deal, replacing the Kyoto Protocol agreed in 1997 and making up for the failure in Copenhagen in 2009. And there’s no doubt the outcome will have a significant impact on business.
The Low Carbon Economy Index tracks the G20 countries carbon intensity, or emissions per million dollars of GDP. On average, carbon intensity has fallen by 1.3% each year since 2000 and on that trajectory the two degrees carbon budget will run out in 2035.
But for the first time, in 2014 there was signs of rapid uncoupling of emissions from economic growth. Overall carbon intensity fell by 2.7%, with the largest EU countries making sharp reductions of over 7%. But at the global level there is still a big gap between current progress and the 6.3% reductions needed every year to stick to the 2 degrees carbon budget.
In the lead up to Paris, countries have proposed a range of emissions targets known as INDCs. We have looked at the ambition of these targets and found that on average they require carbon intensity reductions of 3%, not enough to achieve 2 degrees, but clearly a step change from business as usual. This raises the prospect of more regulation of carbon intensive sectors like energy, steel and cement and more incentives for renewables with total low carbon investment in China and the EU expected to exceed $500 billion a year between now and 2030. Source: PwC
